Federal electorate · House of Representatives · QLD
Blair
Current member
Shayne Neumann, Australian Labor Party
Won at the 2025 federal election
Labor
Shayne Neumann, re-elected
Margin after preferences
5.7 pts
A marginal seat
Announced candidates, next election
0
None with a source so far
Next federal election
Candidates publicly announced or preselected so far.
No candidates have been announced for Blair yet.
Sitting member
Shayne Neumann (Australian Labor Party) holds the seat, but no source yet confirms they'll recontest it, so they aren't counted above.
Where Blair is
2025 federal election result
Bar colours show each candidate's party.
First preferences
2025 federal election result, first preferences
Carl Mutzelburg (LNP)31,797 votes,27.2%swing −1.7
Paul Toner (GRN)12,104 votes,10.3%swing −2.2
Brendan Kross (ONP)11,344 votes,9.7%swing −0.3
Anthony Hopkins (LC)5,353 votes,4.6%swing +4.6
Kathryn Chadwick (GRPF)4,421 votes,3.8%swing +3.8
Edward McDonald (TP)3,769 votes,3.2%swing +3.2
John Frederick Purdon (FF)2,334 votes,2.0%swing +2.0
Angela Lowery (AJ)1,874 votes,1.6%swing −0.9
Anthony Bull (LBT)1,132 votes,1.0%swing +1.0
Bars show each candidate's share of formal first-preference votes on a 0–100% scale. Swing is the change in share, in percentage points, as published by the AEC.
After preferences (two-candidate preferred)
55.7%44.3%
The vertical line marks 50%.
Margin 5.7 pts (Labor): marginal by the AEC's thresholds (under 6 points marginal, 6–10 fairly safe, over 10 safe). This describes this result, not a forecast.
Results as a table
| Candidate | Party | Votes | First pref. | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shayne Neumann | Australian Labor Party | 42,825 | 36.62% | +1.6 pts |
| Carl Mutzelburg | LNP | 31,797 | 27.19% | -1.7 pts |
| Paul Toner | The Greens | 12,104 | 10.35% | -2.2 pts |
| Brendan Kross | Pauline Hanson's One Nation | 11,344 | 9.70% | -0.3 pts |
| Anthony Hopkins | Legalise Cannabis Party | 5,353 | 4.58% | +4.6 pts |
| Kathryn Chadwick | Gerard Rennick People First | 4,421 | 3.78% | +3.8 pts |
| Edward McDonald | Trumpet of Patriots | 3,769 | 3.22% | +3.2 pts |
| John Frederick Purdon | Family First | 2,334 | 2.00% | +2.0 pts |
| Angela Lowery | Animal Justice Party | 1,874 | 1.60% | -0.9 pts |
| Anthony Bull | Libertarian | 1,132 | 0.97% | +1.0 pts |
Source: Australian Electoral Commission