Won at the 2025 federal election
Liberal
Aaron Violi, re-elected
Margin after preferences
2.9 pts
A marginal seat
Announced candidates, next election
0
None with a source so far
Next federal election
Candidates publicly announced or preselected so far.
No candidates have been announced for Casey yet.
Sitting member
Aaron Violi (Liberal Party) holds the seat, but no source yet confirms they'll recontest it, so they aren't counted above.
Where Casey is
2025 federal election result
Bar colours show each candidate's party.
First preferences
2025 federal election result, first preferences
Naomi Oakley (ALP)26,820 votes,24.3%swing −0.8
Merran Blair (GRN)12,107 votes,10.9%swing −2.2
Claire Ferres Miles (IND)11,590 votes,10.5%swing +2.4
Ambere Livori (ONP)5,603 votes,5.1%swing +1.8
Phillip Courtis (TP)3,716 votes,3.4%swing +2.6
Dan Nebauer (FF)3,154 votes,2.9%swing +2.9
Chloe Bond (AJ)2,379 votes,2.1%swing +0.4
Bars show each candidate's share of formal first-preference votes on a 0–100% scale. Swing is the change in share, in percentage points, as published by the AEC.
After preferences (two-candidate preferred)
52.9%47.1%
The vertical line marks 50%.
Margin 2.9 pts (Liberal): marginal by the AEC's thresholds (under 6 points marginal, 6–10 fairly safe, over 10 safe). This describes this result, not a forecast.
Results as a table
| Candidate | Party | Votes | First pref. | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Violi | Liberal | 45,194 | 40.88% | +4.3 pts |
| Naomi Oakley | Australian Labor Party | 26,820 | 24.26% | -0.8 pts |
| Merran Blair | The Greens | 12,107 | 10.95% | -2.2 pts |
| Claire Ferres Miles | Independent | 11,590 | 10.48% | +2.4 pts |
| Ambere Livori | Pauline Hanson's One Nation | 5,603 | 5.07% | +1.8 pts |
| Phillip Courtis | Trumpet of Patriots | 3,716 | 3.36% | +2.6 pts |
| Dan Nebauer | Family First | 3,154 | 2.85% | +2.9 pts |
| Chloe Bond | Animal Justice Party | 2,379 | 2.15% | +0.4 pts |
Source: Australian Electoral Commission