Federal Parliament · House of Representatives
Aaron Violi
Member for Casey · Liberal Party · VIC
Shadow Minister for the Digital Economy · since 17 Feb 2026Shadow Minister for Science, Technology and Innovation · since 17 Feb 2026Shadow Minister for Cyber Security · since 17 Feb 2026
First preferences
40.9%
45,194 votes · +4.3 pts swing
After preferences
52.9%
Against Naomi Oakley (Labor)
Winning margin
2.9 pts
A marginal seat
How Casey voted · 2025 federal election
Bar colours show each candidate's party.
First preferences
How Casey voted · 2025 federal election, first preferences
Naomi Oakley (ALP)26,820 votes,24.3%swing −0.8
Merran Blair (GRN)12,107 votes,10.9%swing −2.2
Claire Ferres Miles (IND)11,590 votes,10.5%swing +2.4
Ambere Livori (ONP)5,603 votes,5.1%swing +1.8
Phillip Courtis (TP)3,716 votes,3.4%swing +2.6
Dan Nebauer (FF)3,154 votes,2.9%swing +2.9
Chloe Bond (AJ)2,379 votes,2.1%swing +0.4
Bars show each candidate's share of formal first-preference votes on a 0–100% scale. Swing is the change in share, in percentage points, as published by the AEC.
After preferences (two-candidate preferred)
52.9%47.1%
The vertical line marks 50%.
Margin 2.9 pts (Liberal): marginal by the AEC's thresholds (under 6 points marginal, 6–10 fairly safe, over 10 safe). This describes this result, not a forecast.
Results as a table
| Candidate | Party | Votes | First pref. | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Violi | Liberal | 45,194 | 40.88% | +4.3 pts |
| Naomi Oakley | Australian Labor Party | 26,820 | 24.26% | -0.8 pts |
| Merran Blair | The Greens | 12,107 | 10.95% | -2.2 pts |
| Claire Ferres Miles | Independent | 11,590 | 10.48% | +2.4 pts |
| Ambere Livori | Pauline Hanson's One Nation | 5,603 | 5.07% | +1.8 pts |
| Phillip Courtis | Trumpet of Patriots | 3,716 | 3.36% | +2.6 pts |
| Dan Nebauer | Family First | 3,154 | 2.85% | +2.9 pts |
| Chloe Bond | Animal Justice Party | 2,379 | 2.15% | +0.4 pts |
Source: Australian Electoral Commission